tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → Detroit via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:56 GRR → 20:00 LGA
    DL 5104 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 04m · 67% on time, 10.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 LGA → 23:10 DTW
    DL 1014 · Delta · 2h 10m · 70% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (10.5% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 14mGRR 17:56 to DTW 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.