tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Denver via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:02 TYS → 13:06 LGA
    DL 5113 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 05m · 80% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:55 LGA → 16:19 DEN
    DL 716 · Delta · 4h 24m · 71% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Knoxville). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 17mTYS 11:02 to DEN 16:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.