tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → New York via Asheville: arrives on time 15%

  1. 17:02 ATL → 18:10 AVL
    DL 5121 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 09m · 51% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Asheville (AVL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 AVL → 21:02 LGA
    DL 4664 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 06m · 44% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip4h 00mATL 17:02 to LGA 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.