tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Asheville → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 43%

  1. 19:45 AVL → 21:02 ATL
    DL 5122 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 17m · 60% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:57 EWR +1 day
    DL 2552 · Delta · 2h 18m · 70% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 13mAVL 19:45 to EWR 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.