tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Detroit via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:59 XNA → 20:55 ATL
    DL 5126 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 56m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:53 ATL → 23:57 DTW
    DL 651 · Delta · 2h 04m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 58mXNA 17:59 to DTW 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.