tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:59 XNA → 20:55 ATL
    DL 5126 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 56m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 ATL → 22:47 PHX
    DL 842 · Delta · 4h 02m · 75% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 48mXNA 17:59 to PHX 22:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.