tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Pensacola → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 39%

  1. 12:11 PNS → 15:58 LGA
    DL 5156 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 47m · 70% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 LGA → 19:10 ORD
    DL 2503 · Delta · 3h 10m · 62% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 59mPNS 12:11 to ORD 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.