tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 47%

  1. 14:19 SDF → 15:46 DTW
    DL 5160 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 27m · 71% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 DTW → 18:00 PHX
    DL 1135 · Delta · 4h 06m · 67% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 37mSDF 14:19 to PHX 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.