tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Hebron via New York: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:05 RDU → 18:52 LGA
    DL 5180 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 47m · 44% on time, 18.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 LGA → 22:35 CVG
    DL 5517 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 25m · 60% on time, 11.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (18.2% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (11.6% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 30mRDU 17:05 to CVG 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.