tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Orlando via New York: arrives on time 20%

  1. 17:05 RDU → 18:52 LGA
    DL 5180 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 47m · 44% on time, 18.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 LGA → 22:55 MCO
    DL 2540 · Delta · 3h 00m · 59% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (18.2% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 50mRDU 17:05 to MCO 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.