tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:32 MSN → 20:58 DTW
    DL 5214 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 26m · 74% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 DTW → 23:41 LGA
    DL 2603 · Delta · 1h 51m · 74% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 09mMSN 18:32 to LGA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.