tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Norfolk via New York: arrives on time 60%

  1. 07:03 DTW → 09:00 JFK
    DL 5216 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 81% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:50 JFK → 11:27 ORF
    DL 5370 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 37m · 84% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 24mDTW 07:03 to ORF 11:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.