tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Minneapolis via Washington: arrives on time 34%

  1. 12:35 CVG → 14:04 DCA
    DL 5221 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 62% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 DCA → 16:48 MSP
    DL 2863 · Delta · 2h 48m · 61% on time, 3.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Hebron). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (3.7% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 13mCVG 12:35 to MSP 16:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.