tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Nashville via Washington: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:35 CVG → 14:04 DCA
    DL 5221 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 62% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:05 DCA → 16:16 BNA
    DL 5777 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 41mCVG 12:35 to BNA 16:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.