tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Newark via Hebron: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:45 DCA → 16:22 CVG
    DL 5221 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 37m · 69% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Hebron (CVG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:31 CVG → 19:33 EWR
    DL 5083 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 02m · 69% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 48mDCA 14:45 to EWR 19:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.