tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Hebron via Newark: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:00 RDU → 18:49 EWR
    DL 5222 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 49m · 58% on time, 9.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 EWR → 22:27 CVG
    DL 5065 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 12m · 73% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (9.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 27mRDU 17:00 to CVG 22:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.