tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:48 ROC → 19:15 DTW
    DL 5231 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 27m · 65% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 23m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DTW → 23:14 IAD
    DL 3988 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 98 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 23m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 26mROC 17:48 to IAD 23:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.