tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Dulles via New York: arrives on time 75%

  1. 07:08 RDU → 09:00 JFK
    DL 5239 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 52m · 89% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:16 JFK → 11:48 IAD
    DL 5835 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 87% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 40mRDU 07:08 to IAD 11:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.