tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Dulles via New York: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:00 BUF → 08:30 JFK
    DL 5284 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 30m · 86% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 46m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:16 JFK → 11:48 IAD
    DL 5835 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 87% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 61 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 46m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 48mBUF 07:00 to IAD 11:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.