tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via New York: arrives on time 70%

  1. 10:00 RDU → 11:40 JFK
    DL 5294 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 40m · 79% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:55 JFK → 18:30 SFO
    DL 679 · Delta · 6h 35m · 75% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 11h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip11h 30mRDU 10:00 to SFO 18:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.