tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Minneapolis via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:50 BUF → 17:30 JFK
    DL 5296 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 41m · 80% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 JFK → 21:00 MSP
    DL 4933 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 40m · 70% on time, 9.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (9.4% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 10mBUF 15:50 to MSP 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.