tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Philadelphia via Detroit: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:34 DSM → 20:27 DTW
    DL 5305 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 53m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DTW → 23:17 PHL
    DL 2402 · Delta · 1h 42m · 81% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 43mDSM 17:34 to PHL 23:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.