tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 17:34 DSM → 20:27 DTW
    DL 5305 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 53m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 DTW → 23:41 LGA
    DL 2603 · Delta · 1h 51m · 74% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 07mDSM 17:34 to LGA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.