tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 73%

  1. 05:30 ROC → 06:59 JFK
    DL 5318 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 28m · 90% on time, 6.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 31m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 JFK → 12:20 ORD
    DL 5119 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 50m · 86% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 166 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 31m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (6.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip7h 50mROC 05:30 to ORD 12:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.