tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Washington via New York: arrives on time 27%

  1. 14:44 ORF → 16:21 LGA
    DL 5329 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 37m · 61% on time, 17.8% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 LGA → 18:58 DCA
    DL 5717 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 62% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (17.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 14mORF 14:44 to DCA 18:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.