tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 12:35 ROC → 13:55 LGA
    DL 5340 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 19m · 72% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 LGA → 16:45 ORD
    DL 2226 · Delta · 3h 00m · 64% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 10mROC 12:35 to ORD 16:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.