tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:10 BUF → 19:39 LGA
    DL 5380 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 29m · 59% on time, 15.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 LGA → 22:36 ORD
    DL 2806 · Delta · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (15.6% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 24mBUF 18:10 to ORD 22:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.