tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:08 DSM → 08:59 DTW
    DL 5414 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 51m · 88% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:48 DTW → 13:55 PHX
    DL 813 · Delta · 4h 07m · 80% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 184 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 47mDSM 06:08 to PHX 13:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.