tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Richmond via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 12:40 BNA → 16:17 LGA
    DL 5438 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 36m · 73% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 LGA → 19:16 RIC
    DL 5760 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 54m · 72% on time, 21.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (21.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 36mBNA 12:40 to RIC 19:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.