tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 12:10 GRR → 13:13 DTW
    DL 5473 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 03m · 71% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:02 DTW → 15:55 LGA
    DL 2602 · Delta · 1h 53m · 76% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip3h 45mGRR 12:10 to LGA 15:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.