tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:22 MKE → 15:37 DTW
    DL 5476 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 16m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 DTW → 18:00 PHX
    DL 1135 · Delta · 4h 06m · 67% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 34mMKE 13:22 to PHX 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.