tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Philadelphia via Minneapolis: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:13 MSN → 19:30 MSP
    DL 5480 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 19m · 65% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 MSP → 23:56 PHL
    DL 2703 · Delta · 2h 32m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 44mMSN 18:13 to PHL 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.