tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Washington via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 11:12 XNA → 15:14 LGA
    DL 5482 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 02m · 79% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 4h 06m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 LGA → 20:59 DCA
    DL 5724 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 50% on time, 10.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 201 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 06m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (10.9% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip8h 48mXNA 11:12 to DCA 20:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.