tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Phoenix via Los Angeles: arrives on time 57%

  1. 09:00 JFK → 11:58 LAX
    AA 1 · American · 5h 58m · 87% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 LAX → 14:40 PHX
    AA 1994 · American · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 40mJFK 09:00 to PHX 14:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.