tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 33m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 ORD → 22:54 LAS
    AA 1465 · American · 3h 55m · 48% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 33m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 14mPHL 17:40 to LAS 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.