tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Omaha via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 ORD → 00:37 OMA +1 day
    AA 3198 · American · 1h 37m · 45% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 144 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 09m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 32mPHL 17:40 to OMA 00:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.