tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 ORD → 23:13 LAX
    AA 613 · American · 4h 24m · 51% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip8h 33mPHL 17:40 to LAX 23:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.