tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Birmingham via Chicago: arrives on time 50%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:28 BHM
    AA 3757 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 59m · 70% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 49mPHL 17:40 to BHM 23:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.