tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:18 MEM +1 day
    AA 3945 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 48m · 71% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 38mPHL 17:40 to MEM 00:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.