tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 37m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:03 ORD → 23:56 ROC
    AA 4219 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 37m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 16mPHL 17:40 to ROC 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.