tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:39 ORD → 23:01 DAY
    AA 4972 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 48% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 21mPHL 17:40 to DAY 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.