tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 69%

  1. 10:35 PHL → 12:09 ORD
    AA 1041 · American · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:18 ORD → 17:58 SFO
    AA 1253 · American · 4h 40m · 70% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 10h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 144 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 09m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip10h 23mPHL 10:35 to SFO 17:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.