tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Norfolk via New York: arrives on time 75%

  1. 08:22 MIA → 11:30 JFK
    AA 1051 · American · 3h 08m · 89% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 4h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 JFK → 17:04 ORF
    AA 4359 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 83% on time, 6.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 195 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 00m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.6% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 47mMIA 08:22 to ORF 17:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.