tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 27%

  1. 19:17 DFW → 19:54 PHX
    AA 1079 · American · 2h 37m · 49% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:48 PHX → 22:42 SMF
    AA 2048 · American · 1h 54m · 68% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 25mDFW 19:17 to SMF 22:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.