tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kansas City via Washington: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:36 PHX → 19:59 DCA
    AA 1092 · American · 4h 23m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 DCA → 22:49 MCI
    AA 4694 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 50m · 67% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip8h 13mPHX 12:36 to MCI 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.