tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Washington via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:25 ORD → 15:59 DFW
    AA 1120 · American · 2h 34m · 49% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 DFW → 21:31 DCA
    AA 472 · American · 3h 16m · 65% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip7h 06mORD 13:25 to DCA 21:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.