tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dayton via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:25 ORD → 15:59 DFW
    AA 1120 · American · 2h 34m · 49% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:16 DFW → 20:48 DAY
    AA 5609 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 23mORD 13:25 to DAY 20:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.