tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 82%

  1. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 41m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:06 ORD → 10:00 MEM
    AA 3683 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 56 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 41m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip7h 10mPHX 00:50 to MEM 10:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.