tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 82%

  1. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:22 ORD → 10:06 MSP
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 46m · 91% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 72 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 57m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip7h 18mPHX 00:50 to MSP 10:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.