tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 68%

  1. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 ORD → 11:34 FSD
    AA 4989 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 00m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 50mPHX 00:50 to FSD 11:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.